Certainty

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By James CookScotland editor

As The Boxer Bob Fitzsimmons is reputed to have said, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

To be clear, neither Nicola Sturgeon nor her husband, the former chief executive of the Scottish National Party Peter Murrell , has been charged, let alone convicted of A Crime .

But in political terms they have clearly taken a dramatic and painful tumble, as demonstrated by The Statement which the former First Minister published shortly After Her release from custody.

It was raw, blunt and defiant. Speaking of her shock and distress, Ms Sturgeon insisted: " I Am certain I have committed No Offence . "

Her forceful denials have not prevented calls for the former SNP Leader to resign or be suspended from The Party she loves pending the outcome of The Investigation .

Those calls left her successor Humza Yousaf with a Choice - demonstrate independence and ruthlessness by suspending his political mentor or swing in behind her on the basis That she had not been charged with A Crime .

Either course of action would have caused him problems and provided ammunition for his political opponents. He chose the latter option - Loyalty - and in doing so he binds his fate more closely to hers than would otherwise have been the case.

Mr Yousaf said he was treating Ms Sturgeon in the same manner That he had treated others who had been released without charge, adding: " I'll do what I believe is right to the values of Natural Justice . "

Labour are hoping to profit from That decision.

A by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, after The Conviction for breaching lockdown laws of the former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier , is not a Certainty - That is a matter for voters in the constituency.

But Anas Sarwar 's appearance there The Day after Ms Sturgeon's arrest tells you all you need to know about the opportunity the Scottish Labour Leader spies.

Mr Sarwar said Mr Yousaf was too weak to show leadership and the SNP was " mired in scandal".

If he had been hoping for a total collapse in SNP support in recent months, however, he must be disappointed.

The SNP's polling has sagged from its heights under Ms Sturgeon but, under Mr Yousaf, the SNP has been registering about 38% support both before and after the arrest, and release without charge, of Mr Murrell.

The political impact of The Investigation , said Sir John, was " perhaps not necessarily as much as the drama might suggest".

Not only That , but the apparent level of support for independence, pointed out The Polling expert, remained at around 47% or 48%.

Nonetheless, Sir John added, the SNP did face serious difficulties. He Said it was facing " a Labour Party north of The Border which is much rejuvenated, " improving the UK Leader of the opposition Sir Keir Starmer 's chances of entering Downing Street at The Next general election.

For the Conservatives, the latest developments have been A Gift , pushing talk of Tory turmoil and by-election woes in England off the Front Pages , at least for now, in favour of headlines about SNP meltdown.

The Scottish Conservative chairman Craig Hoy pointed to the suspension of other figures in the SNP when they faced legal troubles as a precedent the First Minister should follow.

He Said Mr Yousaf would not Take That step " because he's hopelessly compromised by the fact That he Only Won The Leadership election thanks to the backing of Nicola Sturgeon and her inner circle".

For Nicola Sturgeon , the political and The Personal have always been pretty much inseparable.

Ms Sturgeon joined the SNP as a teenage schoolgirl. Her formative years were spent knocking doors for what often felt, in Those Days , like an unloved cause. Independence became a central part of her identity.

She struck up a relationship with, and later married, fellow Scottish nationalist, Mr Murrell, who, from 2001, was chief executive of the SNP.

Along with the likes of Alex Salmond and John Swinney , Murrell and Sturgeon transformed a fringe movement into an election-winning machine.

Not only That , but their core Aim - for Scotland to become a independent sovereign State - became a realistic prospect for the First Time .

The opening of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, running much of the country's domestic affairs, had prompted a switch in focus from London to Edinburgh.

It also provided an opportunity for the SNP, which won control of the devolved Scottish Government in 2007 and tightened its grip with a landslide victory in 2011.

At the ballot box in 2014, Scotland rejected independence by 55% to 45% but, rather than fading away, the SNP bounced back after Ms Sturgeon took over The Leadership from Mr Salmond. The Party swept the board at The General election by securing 56 of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats.

The SNP had gone from a relatively small outfit with relatively little money and power to a slick and successful operation with donations pouring in and rock-star style appearances by the Leader - including one particularly famous rally at Glasgow's enormous Hydro music venue.

Some of those donations are now at the centre of The Police inquiry, which began after activists raised questions about what had happened to almost £667,000 raised as The Party pushed for a second referendum following the UK's decision to leave the European Union in 2016.

Brexit was opposed by 62% of voters in Scotland, which Ms Sturgeon said amounted to a material change in circumstances, constituting grounds to revisit the issue of The Constitution .

At That point Ms Sturgeon was feted by many Social Democrats , and feared by some conservatives and unionists, around the UK.

Critics, both inside and outside The Party , say one of the SNP's problems was That hubris then set in.

Ms Sturgeon was accused of relying on a tiny team of advisers including her husband, and of presiding over an insular operation which failed to heed political dangers.

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Source of news: bbc.com