Pavel Felgenhauer

Let me begin with an admission. So many times, I've thought: " Putin would never do this. " Then he goes and does it.

" He'd never annex Crimea, surely? " He did.

" He'd never start A War in the Donbas. " He did.

" He'd never launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. " He has.

I've concluded that the phrase " would never do" doesn't apply to Vladimir Putin .

And that raises an uncomfortable question:

" He'd never press the nuclear button first. Would he? "

It's not a theoretical question. Russia's leader has, complaining of " aggressive statements" over Ukraine by Nato leaders.

Listen closely to what President Putin has been saying. Last Thursday when he announced on TV his " special military operation" (in reality, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine), he delivered a chilling warning:

" To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside - if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. "

" Putin's words sound like a direct threat of Nuclear War , " believes Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov , chief editor of the Novaya Gazeta newspaper.

" In that TV address, Putin wasn't acting like The Master of the Kremlin, but The Master of The Planet ; in the same way the owner of a flash car shows off by twirling his keyring round his finger, Putin was twirling the nuclear button. He's said many times: if there is no Russia, why do we need The Planet ? No One paid any attention. But this is a threat that if Russia isn't treated as he wants, then everything will be destroyed. "

In a 2018 documentary, President Putin commented that " …if someone decides to annihilate Russia, we have the legal right to respond. Yes, it will be a catastrophe for humanity and for The World . But I'm a citizen of Russia and its head of state. Why do we need a world without Russia in it? "

Fast Forward to 2022. Putin has launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, but the Ukrainian armed forces are putting up stiff resistance; Western nations have - to the Kremlin's Surprise - United to impose potentially crippling economic and financial sanctions against Moscow. The very existence of the Putin system may have been put in doubt.

" Putin's in a Tight Spot , " believes Moscow-based defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer . " He doesn't have many options left, once The West freezes The Assets of The Russian Central Bank and Russia's financial system actually implodes. That will make The System unworkable.

" One option for him is to cut gas supplies to Europe, hoping that will make The Europeans climb down. Another option is to explode a Nuclear Weapon somewhere over the North Sea between Britain and Denmark and see what happens. "

If Vladimir Putin did choose a nuclear option, would anyone in his close circle try to dissuade him? Or stop him?

" Russia's Political Elites are never with The People , " says Nobel laureate Dmitry Muratov . " They always take the side of the ruler. "

And in Vladimir Putin 's Russia the ruler is all-powerful. This is a country with few checks and balances; it's the Kremlin that calls the shots.

" No One is ready to stand up to Putin, " says Pavel Felgenhauer . " We're in a dangerous spot. "

The War in Ukraine is Vladimir Putin 's war. If the Kremlin leader achieves his military aims, Ukraine's future as a sovereign nation will be in doubt. If he is perceived to be failing and suffers heavy casualties, The Fear is that could prompt the Kremlin to adopt more Desperate Measures .

Especially if " would never do" no longer applies.

Source of news: bbc.com