Talking Business

A " real embargo" on Russian energy by Western countries could stop war in Ukraine, President Putin's former chief economic advisor has suggested.

Dr Andrei Illarionov says Russia " did not take seriously" other countries' threats to reduce their energy usage.

Despite its reliance on Russian sources, Europe is continuing to

Last Year , soaring prices meant oil and gas revenues accounted for 36% of Russia 's government spending.

Much of that income comes from the European Union , which imports about 40% of its gas and 27% of its oil from Russia .

This Week , its top diplomat Josep Borrell said " a billion [euros] is what we pay Putin Every Day for the energy he supplies us".

Dr Illarionov says if Western countries " would try to implement a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia . . I would bet that probably within a month or two, Russian military operations in Ukraine, probably will be ceased, will be stopped. "

" It's one of the very effective instruments still in The Possession of the Western countries. "

While the oil and gas trade has continued during The Conflict , widespread sanctions mean that a lot of other economic activity has stopped, and exports have been disrupted.

One recent survey by Russia 's own Central Bank Even forecasts the economy will shrink by 8% this year, while The International Institute of Finance says it could fall by as much as 15%.

Dr Illarionov suggests that President Putin is prepared to endure a hit to the economy that shows where his priorities lie.

" His territorial ambitions, his Imperial Ambitions , are much more important than Anything Else , including the livelihood of The Russian population and of the financial situation in the Country . . Even the financial state of the his government".

Last week, amid tensions with Europe over how gas would be paid for, President Putin said that " key indicators" of the health of The Russian economy include the " creation of jobs, the reduction of poverty and inequality, the improvement of the quality of life of people, the availability of goods and services. "

World Bank figures suggest that almost 20 million Russians live in poverty.

President Putin has, in recent years, pledged to halve that number.

Now Dr Illarionov says, " we'll see probably doubling The Number of Those People , maybe Even tripling" as the economy struggles.

The Moscow-based Think Tank , the Centre for Strategic Research, could be lost this year as the unemployment rate rises from a record low.

Those concerns are shared by Vladimir Milov , who is a former Russian deputy energy minister, but is now part of Russia of The Future opposition party.

" Many people are concerned about losing their jobs, I think it's just that the majority does not really realise the severity of the economic situation".

Inflation, which has already risen to 15. 7% because of The War , means people might stop spending money on things such as gyms and meals in restaurants and " that's Bad News for a lot of small businesses" says Mr Milov.

Some basic food items such as sugar, onions and cabbages have risen in price by More Than 40% since the start of this year.

Mr Milov says any noticeable falls in living standards would help his party's cause as an opposition.

" We have been explaining to people All Along [that] Putin's policy would lead Russia into a catastrophe, including a complete social and economic catastrophe, including [a] deterioration of living standards that we haven't seen in decades".

" I have to say that comes at an extremely high price. We would prefer not to see what is happening today" he adds.

" But I would say [that within a] few months [of] real deep economic trouble, that we haven't seen in 30 years, it will change The Mood of The Society . More people will start to speak out loudly, " he added.

President Putin's former advisor Dr Andrei Illarionov say a change of government is inevitable " sooner or later".

He says " it is absolutely impossible to have any positive future for Russia , with the current political regime".

Under President Putin, he suggests, " there is no way that Country might be integrated back into the International Relations , in The World economy".

Source of news: bbc.com